WHAT HAPPENS TO US AFTER COVID-19 IS OVER?
This COVID-19 Pandemic will end in either [a] mass deployment of a prophylactic or [b] achievement of natural herd immunity, both of which are still far on the horizon.
But by hook or by crook, COVID-19 will eventually end. And when it does, we will wake up into a world that’s very different from what we used to know.
For the foreseeable future, the single primary defining rule will be our aversion to physical contact, brought by our collective fear of another pandemic, may that be due to COVID-19 or some other pathogen that will come along.
And with that rule come consequences. Let me list some of that I can think of.
[1] TOURISM – The travel industry will suffer for years to come as most people will prefer to stay home. Many airlines, hotels, tourist attractions, and the like will have to either scale down or close altogether.
[2] BAILOUTS – I heard that a certain solon suggested a bailout for tourism-related firms, but I find it hard to find a good reason for bailing out firms that will just need another bailout afterward. That’s just like resuscitating Kodak’s camera film business in the age of digital photography. What should be bailed out are small and medium non-tourism businesses that can actually generate profitable jobs.
[3] EMPLOYMENT – Most firms will encourage telecommuting in an attempt to keep their employees healthy. This may hurt the real estate market as demand for office space may drastically fall, although the need for more space between workstations may at least partially mitigate this issue.
[4] TELECOMS – With more staying home, I expect an enormous strain on the country’s clunky telecoms infrastructure. The administration must introduce drastic reforms in the telecoms sector to meet demand, or the post-COVID economy may overheat.
[5] MASS TRANSPORTATION – Mass transportation may need to be redesigned to reflect the New Normal. We can’t pack people as tightly anymore. I don’t know how this will be addressed.
[6] ENTERTAINMENT – Television will be stronger on socioeconomic classes C, D, E, and online on-demand content for A, B, and upper C. If the country’s telecoms significantly improve, local content will face tougher competition with more diverse, on-demand, and online international offerings.
[7] FOOD ESTABLISHMENTS – Traditional dine-in restaurants will take a significant hit, and they’ll need to make their home delivery service more seriously. Higher-end restaurants, e.g. fine dining, may take a harder hit than everybody else.
[8] FOOD PREFERENCES – With the projected rise in telecommuting comes more free time for the average worker, and with COVID-19 comes a potential obsession for boosting immunity, i.e., increased demand for cheap but healthier food options. Heavily processed food may still be popular, but as the economy matures, they will start looking for those that can help them fight a future epidemic.
[9] AGRICULTURE – We haven’t felt it as strongly yet, but the scarcity of food in the coming months due to the hoarding of food-exporting countries will encourage greater support for local agriculture. Food Security, which wasn’t really a priority of any post-EDSA government, will finally be given significant importance, possibly in the form of agricultural subsidies.
[10] EDUCATION – Classroom-based learning will likely decline as more educational institutions find ways to promote distance learning. As to whether distance learning will be more effective than the traditional method, only time will tell.
[11] RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE – People will more likely avoid living in high-density housing like condominiums or row houses, and they’ll get out of it as soon as they can. With the rise of telecommuting and distance learning, proximity to offices and schools will play a less critical role in housing choices. Consequently, I expect a surge in real estate values of rural land as more people prefer lower-density and less polluted and self-contained communities.
[12] MANUFACTURING – Domestic manufacturing will likely be encouraged as a matter of National Security. The same goes for Research and Development that goes hand-in-hand with it. What we want is a future Philippines with a strong R&D culture, which better equips the nation to cope with new threats (e.g., viruses).
[13] MALLS – Malls will take a significant hit. We already have a strong “mall culture,” but as soon as people are informed of the final death toll of the local COVID-19 epidemic, mindsets will change.
[14] CHURCHES – Churches will likely suffer more reduced attendance. However, I do not expect the popularity of religion to wane, as more people look for a higher power to keep their sanity intact. However, this may be a significant blow to some churches that rely heavily on donations for survival.
[15] POPULATION GROWTH – I expect a drop in birth rates throughout the world as people are less likely to engage in physical contact. It’s so simple, but it makes sense. This will hurt countries that already have aging populations (Italy, Japan, White United States). However, the effect on emerging economies like the Philippines could be positive, as young workers will have more disposable income for self-development.
There may be a minor baby boom among currently married couples and that’s not what I’m talking about. I am talking about the current population of singles who are too scared to meet strangers for fear of getting sick.
I can think of so many other possible changes that could happen, but let me stop for now because this post is already running long.
Ctto
The Other Side of Me 
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